Tuesday, June 16, 2009

XAO Medium Term Outlook

I thought I would provide some context to the shorter term charts, so you'll find the XAO medium term outlook for the current wave count shown on the left.

I took a look back at some medium term charts from last year that contained estimations based on Fibonacci relationship and an assumed 5 wave decline from the 2007 top.

So far, the XAO has approximately followed the estimations with the exception of the current expanding wave (4) triangle that will take some time to unfold. I had assumed that a contracting triangle would unfold in the wave (4) position and didn't expect an expanding triangle as they seem quite rare on the XAO.

I haven't taken a close look at the time relationships between the waves as yet, something I'll do shortly.

Wave (5), (not shown) may result in a 5th wave failure because of the expanding triangle - hence there is a high probability that there will be sideways action for quite some time (eg trading in a 800+ point range)

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