Medium Term Gold Update

Some recent action in the Gold price could be a strong indicator that the long awaited wave 'iv' circle has completed. Supporting this is a positively divergent MACD indicator indicating the wave 'iv' circle triangle may be complete.

This chart updates this post from 2011....

Medium Term Gold Update

Gold appears to be consolidating as a 4th wave triangle, labeled as wave 'iv' circle. The outlook is for gold to be range bound for several weeks before breaking upwards towards the $2000 level in anticipation of completing wave (5).

MACD is at an extreme at the top of wave 'iii' circle implying wave iv circle needs to unfold and when complete should break upwards to a new high.

Gold update

In the previous Gold post there was a view that a top in gold could be at hand, however, a slightly higher high formed before a significant decline occurred. The decline does not appear to be a 5 wave decline and indicates one more push up is now needed. The view is for a larger degree wave structure to form and with the MACD at an extreme for this thrust - it implies a wave 4 is unfolding (or has already completed). Charts in next post.

Gold - Is the top in?

For those that have been following along, a significant top in Gold has been expected and the question now is: Is the top in?

It appears a  5 wave decline from the "Top" has occurred and more aggressive downside action needs to occur soon, thus completing wave '2' up. The long term chart is here and provides a multi year view. As you can see, gold broke above the top  multi-year trend channel and instability quickly set in with a $200 decline - however, Gold is yet to drop back down to that trendline. This is anticipated very soon.

GOLD - Short Term update

Gold has climbed to new highs and therefore invalidating the short term count. This may mean gold is sub-dividing and extending higher for the short term count and under this condition, further highs will be expected. Charts later.

Gold - Short Term update

Some interesting action on Gold over the last few days. The 1800 levels have been hit, and as discussed in the previous post -  it was likely to quickly reverse....

"Another push higher to around the 1800 levels is needed to complete wave 'v' of '(v)' and will probably break thru the upper channel line in a 'blow off'."......"A significant reversal is anticipated on the coming days or couple of weeks."

Now the question is: has the medium thrust higher completed? We will likely know very soon and don't be surprised if there are aggressive actions to the down side. $1725 has already been hit, almost a $100 sell off in the last several days, a correction upwards now appears underway.

Gold - Short and Medium Term Updates

Gold continues to drive higher - but the wave structure says otherwise: Be very cautious.

Gold has broken through some anticipated levels, however, with wave 'iii' complete and wave 'iv' looking almost complete - time is running out. MACD is expected to be at an extreme at the end of wave 3's - which is the case here. Another push higher to around the 1800 levels is needed to complete wave 'v' of '(v)' and will probably break thru the upper channel line in a 'blow off'.

On the Medium term, Gold has overthrown the medium term upper channel line with obvious weakness shown on the MACD price oscillator. A significant reversal is anticipated on the coming days or couple of weeks.

August Gold Rush

Gold's push higher has been aggressive and it may soon be time for a breather as wave 'iii' soon completes and a wave 'iv' decline sets in. Gold is anticipated to break1700 and head higher still perhaps to the 1750 levels before the instability commences.

GOLD - Holding the Fort at the 1600s

Gold's rapid completion of the final D and E waves within the larger wave (iv) triangle and breaking the 1600 levels as described back in May now has the bulls paused at just under 1600 - so what's next?

A 4th wave triangle always indicates an impending change in trend - this could be in the form of a minor correction, or as in this case a much larger corrective move.

Perhaps Gold news could kick off a decline although events rarely influence market moves since it is the social mood from the herd that drives markets.  Bad news in bull markets is usually shrugged off, but as the mood turns, and the market falls - bad news isn't shrugged off so easily. Perhaps Ron Paul knows something we don't? Ron Paul worries Fort Knox gold is gone


The short term chart has a couple of interpretations. The first is the ending of wave E within the Triangle. If it's the Green E, then it appears an ending diagonal is forming and the ending of the Gold bull market may not be far away - this is a loose statement at the moment as channel lines, estimated targets need to be taken into consideration.


The Second, if the wave (iv) Triangle finished at the Black wave E, then it appears a 5 wave move upwards has completed and a small wave 'ii' down is underway - this is the pullback one expects when hitting/breaking psychological levels. The preference is for the black count to be the primary view at this stage with a view to heading up to the 1640-1650 levels.


Once wave 'ii' down gains some footing, we can establish some channel lines and bullish targets. A break below the black wave 'E' at 1520 would certainly be a bearish signal.

GOLD update

As covered in previous gold posts, gold has headed higher to the 1600 level since a 4th wave triangle completed and sees Gold at a new high. A small pullback may be needed at this psychological level, but it must not drop below 1540 which could indicate a significant top is in.

Gold is anticipated to break thru the 1600 levels and head higher over the coming weeks. Charts later....

Gold - Short term update

*** 13th July UPDATE: It now appears the triangle has completed with a very small wave 'E' and the expectation is for Gold to head higher (with the obvious pull backs along the way) to 1600+. In the short term, Gold should not drop below 1540 (the ending of wave 'E'). ***


Gold's 4th Wave triangle is nearing close to completion with waves 'D' and 'E' to complete. Once finalized Gold should head upwards either in a 5 wave impulse or perhaps an ending diagonal pattern finishing above the 1600 levels.

Once a breakout of the triangle has occurred, the first pullback should provide some clues as to the future action and where Gold may end up. The final longer term action of  Gold can be seen here.

Should Gold drop below the start of wave 'C' at 1480 would cast doubt on at least the short term outlook.

Short Term Gold Update

Gold has seen some decent moves both up and down over the last 3 weeks. This structure labeled as triangle  wave 'C' appears to be a near completed expanding flat (3-3-5) - a corrective structure and valid within triangles and wave 2's.

Both the triangle and the green wave count (that sees a shorter term triangle completed) anticipate a push higher in the coming days. Again, the preferred count is in black with triangle waves 'D' and 'E' yet to complete.

The longer term wave structure that sees a higher Gold prices is here and anticipates levels in the 1600+ range before a significant top is in place.

Short Term Gold Update

Gold is still moving as described in previous posts - a triangle is most likely unfolding that will continue to see further sideways moves.

Short Term Gold Update

Short term Gold has been unfolding according to the wave count here and the question now is: Has the wave 4 correction completed as a small triangle as per the green count below?

Further time is required before the answer will be known for sure and perhaps Gold will give us a hint with a strong push upwards in the coming days. However, my thoughts are still with the primary count in black that sees a longer correction playing out as a triangle. For this to be valid, I wish to see Gold decline in the coming days and head downwards to the 1400 levels to complete the 3rd leg in this correction.

Longer Term Gold is here and a push to the 1600 levels or slightly higher is required for a significant top to be in place.

Short Term: A break upwards out of the channel as shown would imply that the short term correction has most likely completed.

Long Term Gold - Daily

The longer term Gold chart implies a push higher is needed to complete a decade long bull market leg. The longer term Gold post is here. Once the current correction is complete (shown at arrow) then a push higher should complete this wave (5).

Short Term Gold Update

Gold has been unfolding in line with the last short term post. If a small triangle is unfolding as per the alternative count, then this should finish very soon and see gold head to the 1600 levels.

The longer term post with a daily count can be found here.

Gold Short Term update

Gold is still anticipated to head to higher levels at around 1540 whilst a corrective flat or triangle continues to unfold. The count below has been updated to account for recent wave action in completing the (b) wave. Since Gold tends to like Triangles, I will assume a triangle is unfolding and we are currently seeing perhaps only a portion of 1 leg (the A leg).

The next action should see 5 waves up to the 1540 levels or higher and thus completing the (c) leg of a flat (3-3-5). Once complete, a decline should kick in to form wave 'C' and should occur in 5 waves.

Once this correction completes a push to new highs should unfold before a major multi-year correction occurs as described here

GOLD update

In the previous GOLD post, discussion of a top in the precious metal was reviewed with it's basis on a completed or completing 5 wave thrust that commenced in 1999.

On the very short term 30min chart, it doesn't appear that a significant decline is underway, however, a decline does appear to be unfolding perhaps down to the 1450-1400 levels. This decline may form a 4th wave triangle before moving to new highs and would take some weeks to complete.

On the daily chart (not shown) the count doesn't look complete either, hence a correction now, then a push to new highs to form a significant top is anticipated.

Long Term Gold Price - A Top at hand?

A Top in Gold?

All eyes on Gold - but for the opposite reason.

The gold price has reached unprecedented levels with what looks to be a significant 5 wave upwards thrust near or at completion. This has significant implications for the Gold market over the medium term and may see a several hundred dollar sell-off over the next few years.My last major update on Gold was back here and the wave count has remained the same - with wave (5) yet to complete.

Under this count, the gold price would need to decline to the bounds of the previous wave (4) at around $1000 or lower to the previous wave '4' of a lesser degree at $600.

Looking at the shorter term wave structure there does remain the possibility that another small push upwards would complete the small degree wave count. More on this later...Be very cautious.

Gold

Gold is the flavour of the month with Gold news being pervasive in the media, forums and by the analysts, hence a top may be at hand.

Back in February I posted a few charts on ASF on the GOLD thread and indicated that it appeared a wave (4) was unfolding, possibly as a flat.

This would mean one last push to new highs would complete 5 waves up.





Well, wave (4) has completed (as a triangle) and wave (5) is underway. The second chart below shows a narrow wave (4) triangle and a thrust upwards out. Under these conditions, caution is required for those buying into the GOLD hype that is evident in today's markets.

A push to US$1200 or a little over would make wave (5) equal to wave (1).