Saturday, August 20, 2011

Interest Rates - Consolidating

The 90 day bill rate is currently at 4.81% and has been trending sideways for several months. There's been talk in the MSM for the case to lower rates by the RBA due to poor economic conditions, this may happen as discussed here but ultimately higher long term rates are on the horizon.

One thing for certain is more adjectives and nouns from the RBA will no doubt be forthcoming to justify some type of decision that's already predetermined by the 90 day bill rate.

XAO - Short Term update

There are two interpretation for the bearish case on the XAO - neither of them a positive sign for things to come - some charts later.

In the previous short term post, wave '4' upwards was considered underway, however it pushed past the 38% retrace level (which tends to be common for wave 4's) and stopped at 61.8% retracement of wave '3' down. A new low needs to now unfold before we see more corrective action.

GOLD - Short Term update

Gold has climbed to new highs and therefore invalidating the short term count. This may mean gold is sub-dividing and extending higher for the short term count and under this condition, further highs will be expected. Charts later.

Monday, August 15, 2011

Gold - Short Term update

Some interesting action on Gold over the last few days. The 1800 levels have been hit, and as discussed in the previous post -  it was likely to quickly reverse....

"Another push higher to around the 1800 levels is needed to complete wave 'v' of '(v)' and will probably break thru the upper channel line in a 'blow off'."......"A significant reversal is anticipated on the coming days or couple of weeks."

Now the question is: has the medium thrust higher completed? We will likely know very soon and don't be surprised if there are aggressive actions to the down side. $1725 has already been hit, almost a $100 sell off in the last several days, a correction upwards now appears underway.

Wednesday, August 10, 2011

Gold - Short and Medium Term Updates

Gold continues to drive higher - but the wave structure says otherwise: Be very cautious.

Gold has broken through some anticipated levels, however, with wave 'iii' complete and wave 'iv' looking almost complete - time is running out. MACD is expected to be at an extreme at the end of wave 3's - which is the case here. Another push higher to around the 1800 levels is needed to complete wave 'v' of '(v)' and will probably break thru the upper channel line in a 'blow off'.

On the Medium term, Gold has overthrown the medium term upper channel line with obvious weakness shown on the MACD price oscillator. A significant reversal is anticipated on the coming days or couple of weeks.

Tuesday, August 9, 2011

XAO - Next major leg down underway?

From the previous XAO post - clarity would soon be shed on the XAO medium term direction and it's not good news.

In fact, this leg down could be very aggressive - Over two years ago this October 2008 post (on ASF) for the long term view provided some rough guidance on how the XAO would play out over the coming years: wave 'A' circle to complete, a corrective wave 'B' Circle to unfold, and once completed 'GFC II'  aka wave 'C' circle would be unleashed.....However, wave 'B' Circle took a lot longer to unfold as a more complex correction.

October 2008 View - zig-zag correction on the XAO

XAO Short Term View
The short term view is for 5 waves down to unfold before the first major bounce occurs. The MACD is at an extreme, implying the end of wave '3' down is complete. It is assumed a triangle will unfold for wave '4' that will see sideways action for 2-3 weeks before another push lower to complete this first of a series of 5 wave declines.

The social mood will continue to decline dragging the stockmarket with it - riots in Europe are a precursor to bigger things to come.

Thursday, August 4, 2011

August Gold Rush

Gold's push higher has been aggressive and it may soon be time for a breather as wave 'iii' soon completes and a wave 'iv' decline sets in. Gold is anticipated to break1700 and head higher still perhaps to the 1750 levels before the instability commences.

Wednesday, August 3, 2011

XAO Bullish and bearish views

Whichever way the XAO decides to move for the medium term trend, we should know fairly soon....

Both scenarios are of equal consideration at this stage and both are not perfect either. However, further aggressive downside moves should elimate the bullish view quite quickly until the larger pattern provides clarity.

The bearish view is significant as it implies a major turning point on the XAO. aka wave C circle down

Tuesday, August 2, 2011

XAO Update

A short update - The XAO continues to be erratic, but I sense there is still weight behind an ending triangle, although larger in formation. Dropping temporarily below 4500 will be acceptable whilst the remaining triangle waves complete.