Thursday, April 21, 2011

Interest Rates - Appropriate, Stable, Surging, Consistent and Floods

You can't make this stuff up. Adjective 2.0 is close as I can summarise when reading the news from the Reserve Bank on interest rate decisions. It's the same old story - use complicated adjectives to justify interest rate decisions.

A 5 second glimpse is all it takes to see that the RBA rate will be adjusted (if needed) to slighlty lag the 90 day bill rate.

When will the financial media report the 90 day bill rate prior to the RBA monthly meeting on interest rates and make a best guess to the target cash rate? Too easy? Or perhaps too hard to compare charts? Probably the latter.

Interest Rates (Daily)

Orange Line = 90 day rate
Black Line = RBA Cash Rate Target

Wednesday, April 20, 2011

XAO at a new intermediate term high, well for a few days

The XAO has taken almost exactly 12 months to break (only just) the intermediate term high set in April 2010. This is good news and casts some positive light on the index for the short/medium term even though the high was short lived.

In the last post, there was a view that the index would be correcting in the short term down to support - at around the 4900 level. This has taken place and now remains to be seen if the 3 wave declined finishes the 'X' wave or will a more complex correction unfold - perhaps a triangle?

With the break of the intermediate high, a wave '2' alternate count is now invalidated - this now helps us focus on the primary count as described here.

Thursday, April 7, 2011

XAO Update

An update now that the XAO has reached the 5000 level with some weakness at hand.

The longer term view is still here