Tuesday, March 31, 2009

XAO - The start of Wave (5) down?

I thought I'd post something that looks at the smaller wave count today (noting that what is discussed here can be applied to wave structures at any time scale, so if you want to imagine a daily chart then feel free to do so :-) )

What's interesting about this wave structure is that the wave '2' zig-zag is almost too perfect. Glenn Neely highlights these formations with some caution as the wave '2' correction may not be finished if the entire structure (a-b-c) is contained within the parallel lines (sloping up to the right), which it is except for a very small throw over at the end of 'c'.

In addition, the thrust downwards after wave 'c' seems weak and has not broken the start of wave 'c' in less time than wave 'c' took to form. Hence, looking at individual waves and the time each has taken to form can provide confirmation of the completion of zig-zag corrections. This concept is explained in Glen's book mastering Elliott Wave in more detail.

There is therefore a real possibility that this wave '2' correction is yet to complete and a more complex correction to unfold. Breaking below the end of wave '1' in a small 5 wave move would provide stronger confirmation that a more complex correction is not unfolding.

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