Thursday, March 19, 2009


The Euro surged against the USD overnight, hitting 1.35 up from around 1.30.

This surge can be considered as part of wave 'E' as the last leg in a multi-month triangle. This interpretation fits into a bigger zig-zag correction (5-3-5) scenario where this large triangle is corrective wave (B).

Triangles indicate the current trend will soon change (or at least correct). Since the trend is down, then one more wave down needs to unfold - in this case Wave (C) as a 5 wave move.

Wave 'E' of this triangle, the last wave to complete, should end very soon - perhaps up to the 1.38 area (or even higher, but cannot move beyond point 'C'). Once complete, there is an expectation that wave (C) will commence and head down to the 1.15 - 1.10 area.

The completion of this large multi-month zig-zag correction should see the EURO re-commence the longer underlying trend upwards.


  1. Hello Oz,

    Just a few comments on this chart. I see the same pattern as you here except for the following:-
    -I have my (A) where you have your B
    -Current upleg is wave C

    I have never seen waves B and D BOTH make unorthodox lows below wave (A). Pattern also lacks "right look" if using conventional EW as wave (A) is a long way above B. Unless ofcourse this is some variation(such as what Neely practices).

    Nevertheless, makes no difference as both the way I see it and you have labelled both identified this wave up.

    Just my 2c worth

    All the Best


    BTW great blog!!

  2. Hi WP, I'm tending to agree with your comments here. I think the main issue is that wave A of the triangle is now the shortest wave - which it shouldn't be (ever). A flat scenario (which is what I'm assuming you have) is the strongest candidate.