Wednesday, May 4, 2011

XAO Multi-Year Outlook

The overall outlook on the XAO is extremely bearish based on Elliott Wave analysis (in addition to the massive problems globally with debt that ain't going away anytime soon).

The view below builds on a much larger outlook here that simply implies that XAO needs to return to the long term trendline  - some would call this GFC II or a double dip recession. Obviously there are other possible scenarios that may play out - but at the moment there is enough evidence in the elliott wave count to suggest a large correction of some form is occurring (I'm assuming a simple zig-zag correction based on an initial 5 wave decline).

A suggested target for the upwards 'B' wave circle at 5325 based on a Fibonacci ratio to keep the index under 61.8% retrace (5416). Driving above 5416 would have me reconsider the count as a 'B' wave in a zig-zag should not typically retrace more than 61.8% of the 'A' wave.

This top would complete around the start of August, hmmm, I wonder if that's when the 787 dreamliner will be released?

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