Sunday, May 29, 2011

Australian Interest Rates

The next RBA meeting is almost upon us and there will be the usual adjectives and complexities in describing the rationale for the pending decision on the target cash rate. The sideways movement in the 90 day rate for the last several months will probably see the RBA leave their cash rate target on 4.75%.

So where will interest rates go? Using Elliott Wave for interest rates is more complex since rates cannot be anticipated in waves of 5 (like the stock market) otherwise the rates would eventually be over 100%. Interest rates move in waves of 3 oscillating over many decades and I'm assuming a bottom has been reached on the chart below - since a 3 wave multi-decade decline that started in 1982 now looks complete as of March 2009.

This 90 day rate has now seen five small waves up and a correction needs to occur which may see slightly lower interest rates or more sideways depending on the depth of the correction. Longer term, higher rates are on the horizon.

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