XAO Elliott Wave Alternative counts

As implied in the last post, the lack of clarity in the short term wave counts and the Christmas holiday period has been working against the primary short term XAO Elliott Wave count.

In the chart below there are two counts that I would consider of equal weighting at this stage until some break out of the trend lines occurs. It should be noted that there is divergence on the RSI (oversold)  and the MACD price oscillator on the daily charts since mid December, implying a correction should soon be at hand (or something else to support the 2nd Alternate count). Using volume is a little hard atm as there tends to be a reduction in volume over the holiday period.

Alternate count 1 supports more upside with wave 'B' circle yet to complete. The push higher needs to be in corrective waves and should exceed wave (A). The (A)-(B)-(C) correction is a flat with a B wave failure.

Alternate count 2 supports the downside but wave '2' must not break above wave 'B' circle. My only concern is that wave '2' is taking a very long time to complete v's the initial down leg - although perfectly legal, there may be something else unfolding - hence the alternative counts in this post.

As you can see, there interpretation of the initial leg down from this high can be read as a 3 or a 5 wave move depending on how you count the wave structure.