Monday, December 13, 2010

The Downtrend ready for a run?

On the bearish count, I'm a little cautious around Christmas as the holiday mood is usually positive for stocks and the short term wave count hasn't been clear and a break above the 76.8% retracement of wave (i) down has occurred (although perfectly legal).

The anticipated  A-B-C (circle) correction currently underway (or finished), doesn't have clarity as the C wave needs 5 waves up. However, on the very short term, one can count an ending diagonal pattern which is evident in wave 5's and wave C's of flat corrections.

Under this count wave (ii) should have finished today (or one more small push upwards is needed) and the down trend should resume. Breaking above the Wave '2' high at 4885 will invalidate the count on the short and possibly medium term outlook.

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