Wednesday, October 6, 2010

XAO - Wave 2 pushing higher

The previous count for wave '2' has been invalidated as the XAO hit a new high today and casts significant doubt over a double flat correction. An alternative count below shows wave '2' still unfolding but as a single flat correction.

One deciding factor is interpreting wave 'i' of (c) - it could be counted as 3 or 5 waves. Counted as 5, it provides the first leg of wave (c) up. The minor issue in this count is wave 'ii' and 'iv' of wave (c) overlap ever so slightly - sometimes due to opening and closing extremes on the all ordinaries index.

Some upside targets for wave (c):
  • At 4775 = 38.2% of wave i of (c) 
  • At 4874 = 61.8% of wave i of (c)
Wave (c) could possibly be complete as of today due to the new high, but a break below the wave ii and iv trend line (not shown) will need to occur before we can consider 5 waves up complete.

It's also interesting to note the RBA left interest rates on hold this month - politics at play for the new Government? Further upside on the 90 day rate will force the RBA to reconsider the cash rate target at the next monthly meeting.

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