Sunday, September 5, 2010

XAO must stay under 4620

The All Ordinaries index must stay below 4620 for the current wave count to be valid. A break above this level will either:
  • indicate further wave '2' action, or
  • indicate that wave 'B' circle is yet to finish and will break higher again. If the index continues higher from here, then the correction that started in mid-april may be considered a triangle - indicating an upcoming change in trend in the medium term.
On the very short term,  it appears an ending diagonal could be under development since last Wednesday and one more small 3 wave push upwards is needed to finish this leg.  For the ending diagonal to remain valid, the index cannot climb above 4605 (wave 3's cannot be the shortest waves). On the technical front, the RSI and MACD price oscillator are in oversold territories indicating a short term correction or change in trend may be at hand. Will the Luna half moon from last Thursday still have a say in the short term? It still has another day or two to prove itself.

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