Tuesday, July 13, 2010

Head and Shoulders on the XAO (again)

The Australian All Ordinaries is displaying a major Head and Shoulders pattern, an ominous sign for the index. This pattern also helps to confirm the bearish Elliott Wave count discussed in previous posts.

Looking back at the 2007 top, it too displayed a down sloping Head and Shoulders pattern that was the commencement of the global financial crisis. The down sloping neckline usually indicates a very bearish stance, this same down sloping neckline (same exact slope) is visible once again right now on the XAO at a smaller degree of trend.

Being of a smaller degree, the expected declines on this current H&S pattern will initially be less that of the 2008 GFC and will form a wave '3' (as described here). However, it is anticipated that the declines will eventually exceed the bottom seen in 2009 and play out as described in this recent post.

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